Everyone Bought the Computers. Six Sectors Got the Gains. Will AI Be Different?

A square poster of the frames illustration on a freestanding street billboard in early-morning Milan, with a pavement espresso bar three metres in front and every patron turned away from it toward the counter.

The computer revolution was in the 1990s. The AI transformation is playing out now, and hardly anyone has kept evidence showing which side they are on.

TL;DR: Your board will ask what the AI spending bought, and most companies can no longer answer, because nobody measured the work the deployments were about to change. The lag in returns is real, and it sorts the buyers from the beneficiaries. Six sectors out of sixty took 99% of the 1990s gain, and the heaviest spenders missed it. You cannot locate yourself in a distribution without a “before”, and almost nobody took one. Engineering and support kept timestamps, so those baselines can still be recovered.

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